In normal times the visit of an American vice-president to a small country would be a cause for celebration. Out would come the red carpet and with it dignitaries lining up to shake the vice-presidential hand. But these are not normal times. JD Vance and his wife, Usha, received a chilly reception on Friday when they touched down in Greenland for a visit intended to promote, of all things, the benefits of annexation by the United States.
In addition to tearing up global free trade with his threatened tariff war, President Trump is threatening to do the same to the rules-based order. Territorial expansion, thought to have gone the way of the colonial empires, is back on the menu. Mr Trump’s preferred dish is Greenland, a self-governing territory of Denmark two thirds of the size of India but with a population (57,000) equal to that of Kidderminster. Despite rebuffs from both the Danish and Greenlandic administrations, the president has refused to take no for an answer, insisting that he will do whatever it takes to secure ownership of the world’s biggest island. The Vances’ flying visit to the US base at Pituffik was the latest expression of interest in a real estate deal that would, if completed, rival the US purchase of Alaska from Russia in 1867.
• Why JD Vance’s visit to Greenland could deepen US-Russian rivalry
Interest in the High North is at an all-time high. The Arctic is thought to be home to a quarter of the world’s unexploited gas and oil reserves, and vast deposits of critical minerals. Access to those riches is set to become easier as global warming opens up new shipping lanes. Instead of being impassable due to sea ice for almost the entire year, the Northern Sea Route skirting Russia and the Northwest Passage skirting Canada are expected to become navigable for six and four months per year respectively by 2100. This will alter the dynamics of global trade, with the journey from the Far East to Europe cut substantially. Whereas a voyage via the Cape of Good Hope takes an average of 29 days, and one via the Suez Canal 22 days, the Arctic route would take as little as ten, representing a substantial saving in shipping costs and a huge stimulus to trade.
The significance of the Northern Sea Route is not only financial. China has long sought ways to escape US domination of global sea lanes, and in particular choke points like the Malacca Strait and the Red Sea. Going round the top of Russia would provide a route largely bordered by friendly territory, except for the Bering Strait bordering Alaska. Beijing is investing in docks at ports along Russia’s sparsely-populated Arctic littoral.
• Why does Trump want Greenland?
Meanwhile, Moscow is reviving its military power in the High North, refurbishing old naval and army bases and airfields or building new ones. Since 2007, when Russia staked a claim to the Arctic Ocean by erecting a titanium version of its flag on the seabed at the North Pole, it has been winning the race to dominate the region. During a visit last week to Murmansk, home of Russia’s Northern Fleet, President Putin vowed to preserve his country’s leadership there, while noting Mr Trump’s “serious” plan in relation to Greenland. Anxious to curry favour with Washington during negotiations over ending the war in Ukraine, Moscow is offering the carrot of economic co-operation in the northern latitudes.
When Mr Trump assumed office in January and started talking of his desire to incorporate Canada into the Union, seize the Panama Canal and plant the Stars and Stripes on Greenland he was greeted with derision. But Greenlanders are not laughing now. Mr Trump says “getting” the frozen land is a national security priority. Yet Denmark is a fellow member of Nato and has always been happy to furnish the US with bases. The suspicion must be that Mr Trump, ever the businessman, is interested in what lies beneath Greenland’s vast icecap and wants the US to be there when some of it melts.
