Federal election love descends on marginal seats — will SA get much?

Voters in South Australia could be forgiven for feeling a little bit forgotten in recent federal elections, having watched leaders from both parties heavily focus their campaigning efforts in other parts of the country.

The reason is basic mathematics.

The number of crucial electoral battlegrounds — the marginal seats which will decide who holds the keys to the Lodge after May 3 — in other states easily outstrips those in South Australia.

There are only two seats seen by the major parties as genuinely competitive in the state at this election.

One is Sturt, a seat in Adelaide's east and north-east suburbs, held by the Liberals for the past half century but one where Labor sniffs a potential for a gain.

The other is Boothby, where Liberal Nicolle Flint is trying to regain her old seat but needs a swing of 3.28 per cent to do so.

Two marginal seats in SA is a slight uptick on some recent elections, where there was only one seen as legitimately up for grabs, but it's still nothing compared to other parts of the country.

By the Electoral Commission's definition, New South Wales has 14 marginal seats, there are 13 in Victoria, 11 in Queensland and seven in Western Australia.

More to be gained in those states likely means more visits from the leaders and potentially more funds in the form of election promises for those parts of the country.

In the shadow campaign which has been raging for months, if not years, neither Prime Minister Anthony Albanese or Opposition Leader Peter Dutton have been a particularly frequent visitor to SA.

Mr Albanese did head to Whyalla last month with a big cash injection in hand, as part of the state and federal government intervention into the town's troubled steelworks.

And, as well as visiting Adelaide in late February, Mr Dutton may see SA as an opportunity to build his case for nuclear power — with a power station planned for Port Augusta under the Coalition's policy.

Comebacks and by-elections

As it fights to maintain — and boost — its numbers in SA, one thing will be giving Labor confidence.

It has been an utterly dominant few years for the party in the state.

In 2022, it made history by toppling a one-term Liberal state government.

A few months later, it ended more than 70 years of Liberal representation in the federal seat of Boothby.

Then, in early 2024, it became the first SA government to take a seat from an opposition at a by-election in more than a century when it won the seat that had been held by former premier Steven Marshall.

Eight months later it repeated the same trick, winning the seat of Black.

Now the federal poll presents an opportunity for Labor to continue its streak when it attempts to win the seat of Sturt for the first time since 1972.

Incumbent Liberal James Stevens is in the seat, formerly held by Christopher Pyne, on fairly safe margin.

But a big swing in 2022 means Labor now needs a gain of only 0.45 per cent to win.

University of Adelaide Emeritus Professor of politics Clem Macintyre said the popularity of the state Labor government would not necessarily translate federally.

"If the Premier campaigns hard in the seat of Sturt then that may make a difference but not as much of a difference as the local factors did at the Dunstan by-election," he said.

The Greens could also be something of a factor, with the party feeling optimism after its vote surged at the by-election in Dunstan — which is within Sturt's boundaries.

Professor Macintyre  said the Greens's confidence in Sturt had been boosted after the party's vote surged at the Dunstan by-election.

But he said that surge would not necessarily be replicated at this election because Sturt was bigger than Dunstan and took in "a more diverse group of voters".

Professor Macintyre expected the addition of SA's first teal candidate, retired GP Verity Cooper, to "complicate matters" for Mr Stevens.

"If she is able to take any votes from the Liberals, and if they don't come back to James Stevens as preferences, then clearly he's going to be in some trouble," he said.

He said while Sturt was "a really tough seat to call", Labor had set its sights on it several times before — and had fallen just short.

"I'm not sure that I've seen enough yet, at this stage of the campaign, to suggest they'll get over the line this time," he said.

Professor Macintyre said cost-of-living would be on the minds of Sturt voters, but not to the same extent as in other marginal seats.

"That's not to say that cost-of-living pressures and mortgage rates won't be a factor in Sturt, but I think it's less of an issue there than it is in the big eastern states," he said.

While Labor is hopeful in Sturt, there is a level of risk for the Albanese government elsewhere.

Louise Miller-Frost won Boothby for Labor in 2022.

But Ms Flint, who chose not to recontest the seat in 2022 but is now attempting a political comeback, has won the historically Liberal electorate twice before.

While these two seats will be fiercely fought, there is a lack of other races seen by political operatives on both sides as likely to be close.

By margin, the next closest seat in SA is Hindmarsh — held by Mark Butler on a margin of nearly 9 per cent, which is unlikely to be giving the Health Minister too many sleepless nights.

Of course, all parties will insist they take no seat for granted and they will be trying to win every electorate.

But how many visits South Australia gets from either the Prime Minister or Opposition Leader on the campaign trail remains to be seen.