Chad’s Great-Power Balancing Act

Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Africa Brief.

The highlights this week: Burkina Faso bans more foreign publications, citizens of Togo head to the polls following passage of a controversial new law, and the decline of U.S. approval ratings across Africa.

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As Chadians prepare for presidential elections on May 6, Washington is about to withdraw its troops after officials in the country asked the United States to leave.

The ejection of U.S. forces in Chad should not be viewed in the same way as departures from Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali, where juntas present themselves as anti-imperialist. In contrast, Chadian military leader Gen. Mahamat Idriss Déby relies on Western support to keep himself in office but faces strong domestic opposition against France as well as pressure to explore a new security partnership with Russia.

Political analysts describe the U.S. expulsion as a tactical move to boost Déby’s profile ahead of elections and signal his openness to eradicating Western influence without sacrificing his most important ally—France. Security experts have suggested that it’s part of a bargaining strategy to increase U.S. support for the Chadian government. The drawdown of a small U.S. contingency could be temporary, as Washington said it intends to renegotiate with Chad post-elections.

It is the latest step by Déby to stage-manage an ostensibly democratic transition and maintain his family’s dynastic rule.

“For the time being, he is in a safer position if he keeps French troops” despite being seen by many Chadians as a French stooge, said Berny Sèbe, an expert on Francophone Africa at Birmingham University.

In a move backed by France, Déby took power in April 2021 following the death of his father, former President Idriss Déby Itno, who died fighting rebels. Déby Itno’s totalitarian 30-year rule was marked by nepotism and corruption.

French President Emmanuel Macron was the only Western leader to attend Déby Itno’s funeral. Macron described the dictator as a “loyal friend” and “courageous” soldier. As a result, the younger Déby can’t easily expel the more than 1,000 French troops stationed in the country.

Chad has never had anything resembling a democracy, and this has continued to enable public support for coups. Former U.S. President Ronald Reagan provided arms and cash to former Chadian President Hissene Habre and his “murderous” regime before Déby Itno overthrew him. Among citizens, “such realities depict Western actors as enablers of the personal enrichment of these leaders who do so at the expense of national resources” according to the European Centre for Development Policy Management.

Déby repeatedly evaded questions about whether he would remove French soldiers from three bases in the country during an interview with French media.

France and the United States have continued to cooperate with Chad’s undemocratic regime due to its geostrategic value, political analysts say. Chad’s location at a crossroad between North, West, and Central Africa makes it ideal for global actors. Chad hosts U.S. military exercises as well as France’s largest base in Africa, and it has received French and EU troops as they’ve been kicked out from Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger.

“It is the backyard of Libya, close to Niger, Sudan, also within close distance of Egypt, Algeria, Mali, Nigeria, Cameroon … if you get your jets stationed in N’Djamena, you can project your power very effectively all around the African continent,” Sèbe said.

Police violently crushed pro-democracy protests in 2021. The constitution was amended in 2022 to make Déby eligible to run for president. Years of Western military assistance have not solved the Sahel’s security challenges, however. Deaths from terrorism increased even before a spate of coups hit the region.

Chad has never had a democratic election, and Déby is expected to win the May 6 ballot. Leading opposition figure and Déby’s cousin, Yaya Dillo, was killed in February, and several opposition politicians have been barred from running.

“Most of the remaining candidates are there to give window dressing to the international community that the outcome is not known,” Sèbe told Foreign Policy.

But Déby still faces multiple internal threats. In neighboring Sudan, he is accused of aiding the United Arab Emirates to transport weapons to the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in exchange for financial aid.

Chad’s political elite, including Déby’s late father, come from the Zaghawa ethnic group, which is being targeted by the RSF over the border in Sudan. RSF fighters include thousands of Chadian Arabs who could later challenge Chad’s minority Zaghawa rule, and Chad’s central location makes it easier to destabilize. The political elite had expected Déby to directly back Zaghawa rebels as his father did two decades ago in Darfur, but he has not done so.

U.S. intelligence agencies warned Chad’s junta that Russian mercenaries were backing a coup attempt by Chadian rebels based in the Central African Republic. In January, Déby met with Russian President Vladimir Putin as he moved toward a Russian security partnership.

A new Russian alliance will not hand Chadians the independence they crave. Chad’s gold, oil, and uranium offers Russia a potential economic resource, and the Kremlin is becoming the go-to for autocrats who prioritize staying in power over state-building. Déby’s increased need for legitimacy post-elections presents Moscow with an opportunity—and protects Déby against a possible Russian-backed coup.

Wednesday, May 1, to Saturday, May 4: 1-54 Contemporary African Art Fair held in New York.

Saturday, May 4: Leaders from the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation gather in Banjul, Gambia, for a two-day summit.

Monday, May 6: Chad holds presidential elections.

Monday, May 13, to Tuesday, May 14: Invest in African Energy forum held in Paris, France.

Burkina Faso media suspensions. Burkina Faso’s military government has banned several media outlets in the country after they published details of a damning Human Rights Watch report accusing the military of rights abuses.

Le Monde, the Guardian, Deutsche Welle, and TV5 Monde were suspended over the weekend. Regional French-language publications Ouest-France, APAnews, and Agence Ecofin are included in the suspensions. The announcement followed last Tuesday’s ban of the BBC, Voice of America, and Human Rights Watch.

Burkinabe soldiers massacred 223 people, including at least 56 children, during attacks in February, according to the Human Rights Watch report. “The government of Burkina Faso strongly rejects and condemns such baseless accusations,” Communications Minister Rimtalba Jean Emmanuel Ouedraogo said on Saturday.

Togo parliamentary elections. Togolese headed to the polls on Monday in legislative elections. The ballot follows parliamentary approval of a new constitution that scraps direct presidential elections and is viewed by opponents as a “coup” that could keep President Faure Gnassingbé in power for life after 19 years in office. Authorities cracked down on civilian and media freedoms ahead of the vote.

On the anniversary of Togo’s independence on April 27, J. Peter Pham, who served as the U.S. special envoy for the Sahel region from 2020-21, directly congratulated Gnassingbé on social media for “numerous efforts in favor of peace, stability and development in the region.” It drew little attention but for two comments from Francophone Africans, who highlighted Gnassingbé’s undemocratic rule. One commenter from Benin called the post “shameful.” Togo has been ruled by the Gnassingbé family for 57 years.

To understand how the United States’ policy in Africa has lost credibility, one need only analyze the often-contradictory U.S. messaging delivered to young Africans about the value of democracy.

Preliminary results are slated for release within six days post-election, but many expect that an overall majority will be declared for Gnassingbé’s  Union for the Republic party.

DRC withdraws Kabila security. The Democratic Republic of the Congo’s (DRC) government has withdrawn all civil servants and security personnel working for former President Joseph Kabila in a statement dated April 23. The statement did not provide reasons. Kabila ruled the DRC for nearly 18 years following the assassination of his father, Laurent-Désiré Kabila.

The United States has lost its top position as the most influential global power in Africa according to new polling by Gallup. Median approval ratings of Washington slipped from 59 percent in 2022 to 56 percent in 2023, while China rose from 52 percent to 58 percent in the same period.

The survey asked people in 36 African countries about four global powers: the United States, China, Russia, and Germany. The United States was the only nation that didn’t see its approval increase from the past year. Germany saw a modest increase from 51 percent to 54 percent while approval of Russia climbed 8 points, from 34 percent to 42 percent.

The highest approval rating of U.S. global leadership in Africa between 2007-2023 was in 2009, when approval hit 85 percent. China’s highest approval rating among Africans was also more than a decade ago at 72 percent in 2011. Today’s lackluster numbers suggest that Africa’s young population is fed up with foreign powers. “In the grand scheme of things, median approval ratings of Washington, Beijing and Berlin are closely contested across much of the continent,” the report said.

Power shortages are projected to shrink South Africa’s gross domestic product from $378 billion in 2023 to an estimated $373 billion in 2024. But the country is now once again Africa’s top performer, since Nigeria’s economy (previously Africa’s largest) has nosedived.

Rising kidnappings-for-ransom discouraged foreign investors under former President Muhammadu Buhari’s eight years in office between 2015 and 2023. Egypt is the second-largest African economy, and Algeria—enjoying increased gas sales to Europe—is now the third-largest, according to the International Monetary Fund. Nigeria’s GDP went from $568 billion in 2014 to a projected $253 billion in 2024, dropping it to fourth place on the continent.

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South Africa, 30 years after apartheid. This week marks 30 years since South Africa’s first democratic elections in 1994. In Africa Is a Country, Sazi Bongwe explains why the born-free generation are unhappy with upcoming May elections. “To the old, the white liberal Democratic Alliance is too coded in the wrong kind of nostalgia. … The absence of a credible, emancipatory alternative to the ANC has come to signal the black, impoverished majority’s entrapment within the sordid status quo.”

Nigeria’s $8 million U.S. forfeiture. In Premium Times, Adeyemi Adesomoju reports on Nigeria’s ongoing legal battle with the U.S. government to recover $8.6 million it paid to a U.S. arms broker, Ara Dolarian. The funds were paid in 2014 for the purchase of weapons following the abduction of 276 schoolgirls in Chibok, a village in the state of Borno, by terrorist group Boko Haram. Nigeria did not receive the weapons, and the U.S. government seized remaining funds and prosecuted Dolarian for illegally attempting to broker international arms deals without a license.